: World merchandise trade growth exceeded expectations in the first quarter of 2026 as surging trade in electronic components related to artificial intelligence (AI) offset the negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East, which began in the final month of the quarter. Trade disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz are expected to be more fully captured in trade data for the next
: Global trade proved more resilient than expected in the first half of 2026 despite the disruption caused by the Middle East conflict, as supply chains adapted and strong investment in artificial intelligence provided a powerful boost to goods trade. However, the resilience was not uniform, with services trade and some regions more exposed to the effects of the conflict. WTO economists have therefore raised the forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2026 while lowering the outlook for services